Let's Get Greedy!

Chad Ellis

Magic is a game of choices. Often we think of choices in the short-term, what would generally be called tactics. Should I double-block his 3/3 with my 2/2s and risk losing both to a single removal spell? Should I Consult for Necropotence or use Vampiric Tutor so that I can cast Necro next turn and use the Consult to fetch Force of Will if needed?
Most games of Magic are likely to follow a pattern that you can predict to some extent...

The most fundamental choices, however, are strategic in nature. More interestingly, they are choices for which there is often no clear-cut answer. Let me give an example:

In a recent money draft, my R/B/U deck was facing another R/B/U deck in the hands of a PT regular. He had put some early pressure on me and knocked me down to twelve by the mid game, while his own life total remained at eighteen. The only creature in play is a Tower Drake. I have good reason to suspect that he is out of gas, although it is possible he has a removal spell in hand. My only spell is Soul Burn, and the lands I have in play will let me Burn for six or seven but only gaining a couple of life points at most. (I have a couple more Islands in hand, but they won't affect what I can Burn him for.)

Tower Drake is a six turn clock, but it's also a one toughness creature. My deck has a lot of answers for it, including some (like Zap) that won't work on several of his other creatures. The Soul Burn, meanwhile, is capable of killing any creature he might play. It can also pull off around a ten-point life swing, possibly more if I wait and draw Swamps or Mountains before aiming it at my opponent's dome. At eighteen life, this may not seem like an important option, but it means that if I draw a Hill Giant of some sort I can turn the game into a race that I might well win.

At some point, assuming I don't draw any answers or comparable threats, I'm going to have to Burn the Drake. I can't just let it kill me, after all, or even drop me within burn range. But at twelve life, it paid off to be greedy and hold onto the Soul Burn. A couple of turns later, I drew a different (better) answer, and the Soul Burn took out a much larger creature (I think a Vodalian Serpent) and gained me three or four life in the process.

This wasn't too hard a call, at least while I was still at double-digit life. A seven point Soul Burn shouldn't be wasted on a creature that my deck has lots of answers for unless it becomes absolutely necessary. This is something many intermediate players don't understand-when you only have a few really good answers, you have to save them for the right questions.

Now let's look at a case where I got too greedy and paid the price. It's the last round of day one at GP Valencia-winner makes Day 2, loser gets to see the city. I win game one, but game two starts off a bit slow for me, with my opponent putting on good pressure. At a key point in the game, I have out a Hunting Drake, while my opponent has out a Silver Drake, an Ancient Kavu and Samite Pilgrim. I've taken a hit or two, but am feeling reasonably good as I have a hand full of gas-Sawtooth Loon, Benalish Trapper, Nomadic Elf, Spite/Malice (no Swamps in my deck, but the Nomadic will let me cast it for five mana), Worldly Counsel and a land. On my turn, I lay my sixth land and cast the Sawtooth Loon, gating back my Drake, keeping a hand full of spells (I put the land from my hand and a Worldly Counsel on the bottom of my library) and playing out my Nomadic Elf.

This isn't the most extreme greed I could have shown-that would have been playing the Loon and gating it back so that I could keep going through my deck later. By bouncing the Drake I force him to keep some mana open (he was stuck at four) lest I can Hunt his Ancient Kavu. But on my turn I spent most of my mana improving my hand and only added a 2/2 to the board.

Furthermore, by not keeping a single land, I limited my options next turn. Malice will cost five mana, so if I want to play my Trapper and Malice, I needed to lay a seventh land... in other words, I now had to draw one.

The result is no surprise. With the Pilgrim making blocking very difficult, my opponent is able to keep putting pressure on me. I eventually reach a point where I might be able to stabilize but if he draws a good spell I'm going to be in trouble. Magma Burst, as it happens, is a pretty good spell.

What if I concentrate on board position for now? On my turn I play the Elf and the Trapper, then Worldly Counsel during his End Step. Even assuming I'm greedy and take a spell off the Counsel, next turn I can use my six available mana to tap his Kavu and Malice his Drake. There will be time enough for Loon tricks later, when the board is stable and I'm not at such a precarious life total. Given the way the game played out (he was mostly out of gas), I think I would have had very good chances to win. As it happened, I died with a hand full of spells. With only minutes left to play game three, I kept a five-land hand with Nomadic Elf and Fires of Yavimaya and drew exactly one more spell the entire game while he smashed me.

Now let's look at a final example. It's a side draft during Grand Prix New Orleans. I'd scrubbed out, and was playing a U/W/b deck against a G/W/u deck with a few powerful splash cards and a lot of tappers. He'd beaten me pretty convincingly in game one after using Hannah to get back an Armadillo Cloak and out-tapping me. I'd narrowly won game two, using a Vodalian Zombie to absorb precious Cloak damage long enough for me to take control. Now it came down to the third game.

My opponent got off to a good start, with a bear and a couple of tappers. When he put Wings of Hope on the 2/2, I looked at the Malice and Demise in my hand and just knew I had to keep taking the hits. The way our decks worked, I had to use my removal on his tappers and hope that my deck would come up with an answer for his flyer. Each time I killed a tapper he seemed surprised and hit me for another three. Eventually, however, one of my own tappers showed up and was able to keep his threat locked down. Our temporary stalemate ended care of Deliver on the Winged creature and my Sky Weaver, which let me start doing some damage of my own. We each played another tapper, and I was just able to keep the board under control while tapping a Pincer Spider every other turn and forcing through some damage in the air. He finally attempted to break out of the soft lock with a Rampant Elephant, but since I can give it flying, it can't kill my Sky Weaver. That let me stick with my plan and finish him off the following turn.

Here, my "greed" wasn't just about giving myself the best chances. It was essential. If I killed the Winged bear, I get a two for one and knock out his offense. I knew, however, that I'd probably end up revisiting game one-his tappers would again stop me from doing anything until he drew into his Cloak, or else just ran me over with his other large Green monsters.

So how do we decide when to get greedy with our cards, and how greedy to get? A lot of this, like with any judgment call, comes down to experience, but there are some basic questions you should ask yourself in a given situation.
What is most likely to determine who wins this game?

This may seem like a strange question, but most games of Magic are likely to follow a pattern that you can predict to some extent. Draw-go on Draw-go often comes down to who misses land drops and has to play the first main-phase spell. (Current U/W control mirrors are often decided simply by who casts Fact or Fiction... since that foolish mortal gets decked!) Sligh vs. Trix (before the bannings) often came down to how much damage Sligh could do before Necro hit the table. Some matchups are determined by tempo, while others are decided by card quality and card advantage. Knowing how a particular game is likely to be won or lost will help you decide what to be greedy about.
Can I afford greed?
Ask yourself what the reward is.

Sometimes you have to put everything into stabilizing the board. This could be due to starting off more slowly than your opponent, or could simply reflect the matchup, particularly in Constructed. In my Valencia example, I knew that I was about to take six points of damage next turn, regardless of what I did, since his Pilgrim made it impossible for me to even try to double-block. That should have been a red flag that it was the wrong time for me to be getting greedy.

A well-timed Aggressive Urge can gain significant card advantage. Stunning your opponent's best blocker can turn a small tempo advantage into a nearly lethal one. Nevertheless, one of the best features of these cards is that, assuming someone has played a creature, they can be cycled. If you watch top players they will often Stun or Urge their opponent's first creature in order to dig deeper into their deck for land or more powerful spells. If you're stalled at two lands, the likelihood that you'll be able to use a Stun or Urge as more than a cantrip is small anyway.
How much does being greedy gain me?

Next ask yourself what the reward is. Playing Faerie Squadron with kicker is important enough that turn-one Squadron usually implies either a gating creature to follow, a one-toughness threat from your opponent that you really want to trade with or a very unusual draw. Kicking a Kavu Aggressor doesn't get you nearly as much and generally only happens when you topdeck it with all the lands already in play. Pincer Spider falls somewhere in the middle. It's a great turn-three play, something Green is low on in Invasion, but if you have other good plays or need to control some 3/3 flyers, waiting for six mana is often reasonable.

Let's look at a final example in light of these questions.

Suppose you are playing Invasion block limited. You have just played your third land and your hand is Island, Benalish Lancer, Faerie Squadron, Fact or Fiction, Razorfoot Griffin, Vodalian Serpent. You have nothing in play, while your opponent has a Nomadic Elf she just played on her third turn. Should you get greedy with your Lancer and hold it until you can cast it with kicker?

What will decide who wins the game? At a trivial level, it's whoever deals 20 points of damage first, but the relevant point is that Invasion Limited games can easily be dominated by tempo. The large number of bounce spells and removal make it dangerous to fall behind in the hopes of coming back with superior spells.

Can you afford greed? Probably. You're at high life and are only behind by a 2/2 on the board. If you keep drawing lands and lay a 2/2 first striker, a 3/3 flyer and then some fatties on turns six and seven, you have a pretty solid chance of taking control of the game. But if you don't draw a fifth land in your next two draw steps and your Griffin dies, you will have to Fact or Fiction for answers for the four or five points of damage that are likely to be on the other side of the table.

What does being greedy get you? Your gain is eventually having a 4/4 first striker instead of a vanilla 2/2. That sounds pretty good, until you look at the rest of your hand. You have three excellent but expensive creatures and Fact or Fiction. Not only are these spells probably enough to take control of the game, they represent considerably more power than you have available mana for casting them. By the time you've drawn the land to cast them, you will probably have drawn other spells to play. Win or lose, you will probably have some powerful cards in your hand when the game is decided.

It's impossible to be certain (these questions are usually judgment calls), but in most cases, you are much better off playing the Lancer than waiting. If you don't, your opponent will knock you to 18 and probably play another creature-maybe one with power of three. Then you're in a potential bind. On your turn you probably have to play your Griffin, but there is a good chance it will die and you'll take five. At this point you may be falling too far behind on tempo to come back. If, however, you had played the Lancer as a 2/2, it would either trade on your opponent's creature or she would have to use her turn removing it instead of casting that Hill Giant. Now on your turn you can cast the Griffin in relative safety and count on the powerful spells in your hand to shift the game in your favor. Put another way-if your opponent's hand isn't strong enough to take advantage of you not playing a spell on turn three, it's probably not strong enough to deal with the other spells already in your hand.